Shares of BlackBerry are up 19 cents, or 1.4%, at $13.90 as Jefferies & Co.’s Peter Misek reiterated a Buy rating on the stock, and a $22 price target, writing that a recent trip through Asia has caused him to raise his expectation for the company’s new handset line based on its BB10 software, including the Z10 handset and the forthcoming Q10 handset.
May quarter (fiscal Q1) results could blow away expectations, at perhaps $4.1 billion in revenue and 50 cents in EPS, he thinks versus consensus of $3.35 billion and 3 cents per share, based on rising production of both handsets:
“The build plans have steadily been increased since February.”
“Our Asia checks indicate that the builds have recently increased from 2M/month to 2M+.”
Misek sees upside to his projection of $15.76 billion and $1.44 for this fiscal year given three forthcoming BlackBerry units that he’s not yet including in his estimate:
Based on our checks we believe confirmation that 2-3 additional BB10 models are likely to launch before year end. A mid-range (i.e., ~$400) keyboard, a mid-range touch, and a 5? Z10-like device (slated for year end launch). None of these models are in our estimates.
Misek also took a moment to explicitly refute a report last Thursday by Detwiler Fenton that claimed a high rate of returns in the U.S. for the Z10:
In Hong Kong/China and Singapore, the tone and commentary was materially better than we expected. In Singapore, commentary also highlighted how strong Indonesia was doing and noted major lineups of a 1,000+ at launch. Overall, we believe overall sell-through data is holding steady and Q10 pre-sales seem to be very strong in the business channel. We believe product launches for the next two quarters combined with steady sell through and low expectations set up for a material short squeeze […] Our anecdotal U.S. discussions contradict recent allegations that Z10 returns are exceeding sales. Overall, our checks indicate typical return rates. Of the few phones that were returned, the only main commonality we found is that buyers thought the Z10 had a keyboard. As it does not, they returned it and will buy the Q10 instead.
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